Macro | Global Strategy & Investment Trends en-US http://www.dinl.net http://www.dinl.net/images/Logo_DINL_RSS.gif http://www.dinl.net 144 31 2008-08-27 18:09:43 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2361 Delusional seems to be mental state of investment community as September approaches. Nonsensical talk of U.S. dollar having put in place a secular, or long-term, bottom is widespread. That EU economic growth rate might slow somewhat is interesting, but may be no more than statistical noise. That growth rate of Chinese economy might slow from “11+%” to “9%” is interesting, but is hardly a “dramatic” slowing. Western economies ... Guest Article: Ned W.Schmidt Wed, 27 Aug 2008 08:54:34 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2360 “Bull or bear, call it what you will, the fate of precious metals seems to rest with the U.S. and European economies and the extent to which the monetary base will have to be inflated to prevent a deflationary spiral. The rally off the July 15 lows in stocks has shown the market tends to overreact in these situations. And in this case, the cause for the selloff is rather tenuous at best, and based on some uncertain assumptions.” Precious Points: Bye-bye Bull? ... Guest Article: Oroborean Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:49:58 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2359 The low volumes and relatively low volatility posted over the last several days is proof that many traders are on vacation, or at least biding their time before getting back into the market, whichever side they might choose. And even though I personally took some time off to move my oldest child to college, the closest I’ve come to a vacation in the last three years, that didn’t stop TTC members from getting accurate and timely charts and taking some profits out of the ... Guest Article: Dominick Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:34:09 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2358 SAVE YOUR TEARS FOR YOURSELF While bankers do control the issuance of credit, they cannot control themselves. Bankers are the fatal flaw in their deviously opaque system that has substituted credit for money and debt for savings. The bankers have spread their credit-based system across the world by catering to basic human needs and ambition and greed; and while human needs can be satisfied, ambition and greed cannot—and the bankers’ least of all.   I have a bad feeling Guest Article: Darryl RobertSchoon Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:24:33 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2356 In football, when a running back intends to cut to the left, he often first fakes right. This move is designed to make the defense commit their resources in the wrong direction. It is my experience that markets often follow a similar path. Just prior to a major move in one direction, markets often make a sharp move in the opposite direction first. With respect to the dollar, gold, oil and other commodities, many on Wall Street have bought into the head fake, and will soon be ... Guest Article: PeterSchiff Fri, 22 Aug 2008 11:14:03 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2355 Faced with slowing global growth, macro investors began dumping commodities and commodity-related stocks, with small- and mid-cap stocks hurt the most. This commodities sell-off, which began in July and has continued into August, also corresponds to the long-term seasonal cycle in which prices for many commodities tend to bottom out in late summer before rebounding in the fall. The unwinding of the long energy/short financials trade also has been a big driver of recent share price ... Guest Article: FrankHolmes Fri, 22 Aug 2008 11:13:13 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2354 In the August 19 edition of The Wall Street Journal, Brian Wesbury has written an op-ed piece, “Inflation Is a Clear and Present Danger.” He would have been on “thicker ice” had he entitled the piece “Inflation a Clear and Present Danger.” Yes, by any measure, the rate of increase in general price indices in the U.S., indeed in the world, has accelerated in the past year. But does this necessarily imply that the rate of ... Guest Article: Paul L.Kasriel Thu, 21 Aug 2008 21:09:29 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2353 "...The shooting-match between inflation in prices and deflation in assets is still a long way from won..." now for financial assets? Given what pumped them up, starting in late 2002, you're better off asking which way for money itself. Less money would mean lower prices – the very opposite of what the world calls "inflation". And if cash becomes scarce as the gushers runs dry, so too will the hope of watching your investments rise. "The markets Guest Article: AdrianAsh Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:43:20 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2352 SLV ETF Trading - Panic, Shouting & Media Hype! It’s all too easy to lose yourself and your position under emotional strain. Let’s face it, it’s hard to think straight when a voice inside your head is screaming GET ME OUT OF HERE! And don’t think emotional reflexes are the preserve of amateur’s only. Professional Money Managers are certainly not immune to panics, especially since they are judged on much shorter timeframes and scrutinized intensely ... Guest Article: ChrisVermeulen Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:22:02 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2351 In early April I wrote a commentary titled “Commodity Boom? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!” in which I hypothesized that commodities would maintain investment leadership through the end of the decade and the rally would end in spectacular fashion in early 2010. This would be consistent with a “decennial pattern” of leadership which began in the 1970s with each decade’s winner roughly doubling the stupendous gains of the prior decade’s Guest Article: KurtKasun Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:17:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2350 Without Borders Ronald Reagan once said those are the nine scariest words in the English language. And he’s starting to be proven right. World markets have been watching with bated breath lately as the dynamic duo of Paulson-Bernanke has mounted the Hill (or has been mounted, as it were), on several occasions recently, soothing the markets, politicians, and public with calming words about liquidity, regulation, and “bottoms.” Even the POTUS (that’s ... Guest Article: FitzroyMcLean Wed, 20 Aug 2008 12:20:19 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2349 As we approach the Labor Day recess and finish off the summer to get ready for the end of year trading pattern the market is leaving us in a very familiar spot. We have bounced nicely off the FNM/FRE bailout lows in what is setting up to be either a bear bounce only to collapse or the beginning of a big bull run towards the old highs. We can’t be sure which path the market will take but anticipate the move to be large either way. As you plan your set-ups keep in mind that sentiment and Guest Article: Dominick and oroborean Tue, 19 Aug 2008 19:06:02 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2348 Since 9/11 the US money supply has rocketed by about 70 per cent*. (The Clinton presidency was just as bad). The problem is one of bad economics, not bad investment decisions, wild speculation, the housing boom, the falling dollar, the current account deficit, the domestic deficit, etc. The vast majority of economic pundits have only a dim understanding of the link between the money supply and America's current economic difficulties. As for politicians, the range from the hopelessly ... Guest Article: GerardJackson Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:30:52 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2347 DZZ Double Gold ETN is a relatively new way to take advantage of gold price action. This gold fund provides double the movement that the GLD ETF or the price of gold does, providing bigger opportunities in the gold sector. I have just recently started to use DZZ ETN for trading and have found it to be very useful, which you will see in the charts below. The fact that it’s a leveraged fund provides more of an opportunity to the small investor, as they can have twice the amount of gold ... Guest Article: ChrisVermeulen Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:38:10 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2346 (continue reading for details) Just because we haven’t been publishing regular free updates doesn’t mean TTC has been asleep for the past few weeks. Our members have been actively trading this volatile market from both sides as it fluctuates widely day-to-day, whipsawing many while generally trending upwards off the July 15 lows. And, if you read our last few updates, even if you’re not a member, you’ve probably been making some winning trades, too! My early July ... Guest Article: Dominick Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:20:44 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2345 “The face of the coin has been debased as fast as its value. First the faces of gods were on the coins. Then the faces of kings. Then of presidents. Today it’s only paper. The miracle is that you can still buy things with it.” ~Ian Fleming,   If the recent meltdown in precious metals took you by surprise, you obviously haven’t been reading this update. Since at least late 2007 this update has said the principal risk to precious metals was a dollar ... Guest Article: Oroborean Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:13:05 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2344 in world gold prices starting in late July knocked the cost of physical metal more than 20% off its record top of mid-March at last week's low point. That level – just above $750 per ounce – also happens to sit right where the uptrend starting in Sept. 2005 now lies. Meaning, for technical analysts at least, either a test (and perhaps collapse) of the bull market...or a screaming opportunity to on the cheap.     As this chart shows – swapping the Dollar ... Guest Article: AdrianAsh Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:09:32 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2357 When we understand “what” is happening (the facts) then we might have a stab at “why” it is happening (the theories). In turn, this might throw some light on what we might expect to unfold in the foreseeable future. We live in a cynical world and from a cynical perspective it is noteworthy that all I am reading with regard to the gold price is theories. Let’s take a close look at some facts: The first fact of significance can be found on ... Guest Article: BrianBloom Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:30:42 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2343 Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of ... Guest Article: PeterSchiff Fri, 15 Aug 2008 19:01:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2342 August 14 marks Social Security's 73rd birthday--placing it eight years past standard retirement age. But, despite the program's $10-trillion-plus dollar shortfall, no politician dares to suggest that this disastrous program be phased out and retired; all agree on one absolute: Social Security necessary. But is it? Social Security is commonly portrayed as benefiting most, if not all, Americans by providing them "risk-free" financial security in old age. This is a fraud. Guest Article: AlexEpstein Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:12:54 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2341 The new narrative forming among the Goldilocks crowd is that US economic supremacy reigns once again, as manifest in a reawakened "King Dollar". The US dollar will continue to strengthen, commodity prices will plummet, and the stock market can only rally from here since all of the bad news has already been discounted. The Global Goldilocks view is that the rest of the world slows just enough to dampen commodity pressures and prices, but the world does not slow too much to wreck the ... Guest Article: KurtKasun Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:51:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2340 Despite a series of worrying news items last week, U.S. stock markets managed to deliver strong gains. Time and again, U.S. investors seem to turn lemons into lemonade by assuming each bad data point is an indication that the bottom is in. Is such behavior indicative of a stock market revival or simply evidence of a bear market rally? For those who strive to think logically, the current market is a challenging environment in which to make money. The current volatility has been particularly ... Guest Article: JohnBrowne Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:47:14 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2339 In most recent we reported that the largest purchases of U.S. government debt by foreign official institutions had occurred in the prior week. Initially, reason for those purchases was a mystery. That is, until Russia decided to crush Georgia militarily. Russian army does not move into invasion mode without some prior preparations. Someone knew what was to happen. Massive amount of money flowed, at a $1.4+ trillion annual rate, into U.S. debt in less than a week. Those financial transactions ... Guest Article: Ned W.Schmidt Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:54:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2338 After falling 40 dollars Monday morning and dragging the HUI down 20 points there are some short-term technical signs that gold may be near a bottom of some sorts. First gold finally fell down hard one morning to start to catch up with the steep drop we have seen in gold stocks. Gold also fell down to its 65-week moving average, which has been its long-term support level for the past six years. First on a very short-term basis the gold stocks started to outperform the metal Monday after ... Guest Article: MichaelSwanson Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:11:23 GMT