Macro | Global Strategy & Investment Trends en-US http://www.dinl.net http://www.dinl.net/images/Logo_DINL_RSS.gif http://www.dinl.net 144 31 2008-08-27 18:09:43 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2160 Good afternoon, * We have seen the dollar consoli-date after its sharp appreciation. * And it is time to buy USD again.   Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Wed, 27 Aug 2008 09:12:55 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2159 Good morning, The dollar rallied in the European trading session as the German IFO survey was unexpectedly soft. We initiated short strategies in EURUSD, EURJPY, and EURGBP yesterday.This Wednesday offers consumer prices from the German federal states, unemployment from Norway, mortgage applications and durable goods orders from the US.EM: CPI from Iceland and South Africa plus rate decision from Poland. Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Wed, 27 Aug 2008 09:08:56 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2158 A storm is affecting the oil market. We recommend investors to SELL copper and gold. CD - Gustav affects the oil price Café DINL: Espresso - CasperAndersen Wed, 27 Aug 2008 08:05:56 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2157 The minutes from the August 5 monetary policy meeting did not reveal much new information compared to the meeting statement and the recent Fed communication. However, the disagreement within the committee remains wide - the general impression from the minutes is that the monetary policy should remain on a firm hold for now. FOMC: Continued wide disagreement Café DINL: Caffè Latte - PeterAndersen Wed, 27 Aug 2008 07:57:11 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2156 Ifo drops as both lower expectations and a more pessimistic assessment of the current conditions weigh in. Euroland: Ifo signals further weakness ahead Café DINL: Espresso - SørenDijohn Wed, 27 Aug 2008 06:33:57 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2155 Good afternoon, • We recommend investors to buy sterling against the euro, alternatively the Danish krone. • The euro has again come under pressure. • Technically, the EUR/GBP rate is at the top of the well- defined range, and the momentum indicators are beginning to point down. Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Tue, 26 Aug 2008 16:50:46 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2154 Downward adjustment of crop conditions for corn and soy beans. Wheat closed heavily down - we change our short-term recommendation from Neutral to SELL. Significant increases in market estimates of base metals. The speculative positions indicate that the selling bout for commodities is over this time round. CD - Wheat sharply down again Café DINL: Espresso - JacobJensen Tue, 26 Aug 2008 13:08:14 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2153 Good morning, Yesterday was a very quiet session since London was visiting the local pubs on a bank holiday.Minutes from the last FOMC meeting at the Fed are due tonight. The press release August 5 showed that the committee was becoming less concerned with growth and inflation.EM: Expect another quiet day in the office Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Tue, 26 Aug 2008 09:36:13 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2152 Spreads drifted slightly wider during a week in which markets focused mainly on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac following fresh concerns regarding the financial state of the two US mortgage giants. We expect the current pick up in primary market issuance (including covered bonds) to continue with substantial new issuance likely in coming weeks. Weekly Credit Update Café DINL: Caffè Latte - HenrikArnt Tue, 26 Aug 2008 08:17:59 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2151 Back to square one. Profit-taking sent commodity prices down. CD - Back to square one Café DINL: Espresso - JacobJensen Mon, 25 Aug 2008 11:10:13 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2150 Café DINL: Beans - ConradSchuller Mon, 25 Aug 2008 11:03:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2149 Good morning, According to CFTC Commitments of Traders, the speculative investors increased their combined long USD position by 3.5 billion. Existing home sales from the US are due later today and our economists see a risk that there will be posted a renewed fall in the figure.EM: Oil, EUR/USD and financial outlook all turn supportive! Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:31:15 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2148 Renewed pressure on US housing market In the past week the news has once again been domi-nated by troubles on the financial front. In particular, attention has focused on problems at US mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which currently account for around 75% of all mortgage lending in the US and therefore play a vital role in the country’s hous-ing market. Weekly Focus 35 Café DINL: Caffè Latte - Danske Bank, Research-Team Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:14:05 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2147 Speculative investors extended their overall positions in the week from 12 August to 19 August, as net long USD positions were built further against all G10 currencies except the NZD. IMM positioning: Short GBP/USD positions are built further Café DINL: Caffè Latte - KasparKirkegaard Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:12:47 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2146 Good morning, The USD fell the most against the EUR in more than a month in yesterday’s trade. Thus at this point a test of 150  seems within reachEM: Coming to the end of a difficult weekToday’s main events: Euro-Zone current account, Euro-Zone industrial  orders, Fed’s Bernanke speaks Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Fri, 22 Aug 2008 09:43:48 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2144 Focus over the past month has mainly been on the demand side of the oil market. However, we now believe that the pendulum is swinging back to the supply side of the equation, and with an important OPEC meeting on 9 September we see renewed upside risk for the oil price going forward. Commodities: Oil price looks set to rise again Café DINL: Caffè Latte - ArneRasmussen Fri, 22 Aug 2008 08:18:03 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2145 Flash PMI for Euroland moved more or less sideways in August, signalling a stagnation in GDP. The good news from today's data is that price pressures might be starting to ease. Euroland: Flash PMI almost unchanged Café DINL: Caffè Latte - SørenDijohn Fri, 22 Aug 2008 04:19:01 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2143 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are struggling as investor confidence in the two Government Sponsored Enterprises fades rapidly, adding risks to the US housing market. US: confidence in GSEs is fading rapidly Café DINL: Caffè Latte - PeterAndersen Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:29:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2141 Good morning, The market will be watching the German and Eurozone PMIs today. We have seen some terrible readings the last few months.EM: A very quiet day indeedPhilly Fed from the US is due in the afternoon, retail sales from the UK shortly before noon, and GDP from Norway at 10 a.m. Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:09:14 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2140 Focus on oil inventories. We close our recommendation for soy beans. Nickel gained again due to production closures. CD - Focus on oil inventories Café DINL: Espresso - CasperAndersen Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:00:37 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2139 Following the sharp contraction in Q2, exports finally improved in July. While we should be careful not to get too excited about these numbers, they at least indicate that exports are not falling off a cliff in Q3  Japan: Exports recover in July Café DINL: Caffè Latte - FlemmingNielsen Thu, 21 Aug 2008 09:57:45 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2142 We are strategically negative on the SEK and target a move in EURSEK towards 9.45 and USDSEK towards 6.50, eventually higher. Sell the SEK on rallies Café DINL: Caffè Latte - StefanMellin Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:03:51 GMT